PSV Eindhoven v Willem II
18+Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct, 17:45
Data: excellent
- PSV Eindhoven win
- 76%
- Draw
- 11%
- Willem II win
- 12%
FootyGrounds prediction
PSV Eindhoven to win
Model probability 76%
Predicted scoreline
4–1 (range 3–0 to 5–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score69 / 100 · Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- PSV Eindhoven strength rating 1670 v Willem II 1538
- PSV Eindhoven home record this season: 3W 2D 0L
- Willem II away form: 0W 1D 4L, 6 scored / 16 conceded
- Superior goal difference: PSV Eindhoven +15 v Willem II -22
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 76% (Elo 68%, goals 85%, recent form 80%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model68%
- Goals model85%
- Recent-form model80%
Component disagreement: 17.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 76% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 76%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.