Heerenveen v NEC
18+Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct, 17:45
Data: excellent
- Heerenveen win
- 51%
- Draw
- 22%
- NEC win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Heerenveen to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Heerenveen strength rating 1635 v NEC 1614
- Heerenveen home record this season: 2W 1D 2L
- NEC away form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Heerenveen +5 v NEC -1
- Heerenveen have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 50%, goals 54%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: NEC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model50%
- Goals model54%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 6.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.