Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles
18+Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov, 20:00
Data: excellent
- Excelsior win
- 42%
- Draw
- 24%
- Go Ahead Eagles win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
Excelsior to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Excelsior strength rating 1605 v Go Ahead Eagles 1620
- Excelsior home record this season: 1W 0D 3L
- Go Ahead Eagles away form: 0W 3D 2L, 9 scored / 15 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 43%, goals 46%, recent form 34%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Go Ahead Eagles are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model34%
Component disagreement: 11.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.