Fortuna Sittard v Telstar
18+Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov, 15:30
Data: excellent
- Fortuna Sittard win
- 58%
- Draw
- 19%
- Telstar win
- 24%
FootyGrounds prediction
Fortuna Sittard to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score55 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Fortuna Sittard strength rating 1626 v Telstar 1581
- Fortuna Sittard home record this season: 2W 1D 2L
- Telstar away form: 1W 1D 3L, 4 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Fortuna Sittard 0 v Telstar -9
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 54%, goals 57%, recent form 67%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model57%
- Recent-form model67%
Component disagreement: 12.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 58% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 58%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.