Willem II v PEC Zwolle
18+Eredivisie · Fri 6 Nov, 19:00
Data: excellent
- Willem II win
- 36%
- Draw
- 25%
- PEC Zwolle win
- 39%
FootyGrounds prediction
PEC Zwolle to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- PEC Zwolle strength rating 1580 v Willem II 1538
- PEC Zwolle away record this season: 1W 2D 2L
- Willem II home form: 0W 1D 4L, 4 scored / 16 conceded
- Superior goal difference: PEC Zwolle -12 v Willem II -22
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 34%, goals 40%, recent form 50%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 16 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model50%
Component disagreement: 16.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.