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Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

Falkirk v Celtic

Scottish Premiership · Sun 1 Nov, 13:00

Data: excellent
Falkirk win
31%
Draw
27%
Celtic win
43%

FootyGrounds prediction

Celtic to win

Model probability 43% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Celtic strength rating 1689 v Falkirk 1621
  • Celtic away record this season: 5W 0D 0L
  • Falkirk home form: 2W 0D 3L, 7 scored / 7 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Celtic +19 v Falkirk +1
  • Celtic have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 38%, goals 50%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Falkirk are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Dundee United v Motherwell

Scottish Premiership · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00

Data: excellent
Dundee United win
59%
Draw
19%
Motherwell win
23%

FootyGrounds prediction

Dundee United to win

Model probability 59% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Dundee United strength rating 1628 v Motherwell 1584
  • Dundee United home record this season: 2W 2D 1L
  • Motherwell away form: 1W 2D 3L, 10 scored / 12 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Dundee United 0 v Motherwell -7
  • Dundee United unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 59% (Elo 54%, goals 54%, recent form 77%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
St Johnstone v Dundee

Scottish Premiership · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00

Data: excellent
St Johnstone win
37%
Draw
27%
Dundee win
36%

FootyGrounds prediction

St Johnstone to win

Model probability 37% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • St Johnstone strength rating 1610 v Dundee 1634
  • St Johnstone home record this season: 2W 3D 1L
  • Dundee away form: 2W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 6 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 41%, goals 34%, recent form 35%)

Main uncertainty: Dundee are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Aberdeen v Hibernian

Scottish Premiership · Sat 7 Nov, 17:45

Data: excellent
Aberdeen win
49%
Draw
23%
Hibernian win
28%

FootyGrounds prediction

Aberdeen to win

Model probability 49% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score56 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Aberdeen strength rating 1607 v Hibernian 1586
  • Aberdeen home record this season: 2W 1D 3L
  • Hibernian away form: 2W 1D 2L, 6 scored / 6 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Aberdeen -2 v Hibernian -6
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 50%, goals 48%, recent form 49%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
St Mirren v Rangers

Scottish Premiership · Sat 7 Nov, 20:00

Data: excellent
St Mirren win
29%
Draw
26%
Rangers win
45%

FootyGrounds prediction

Rangers to win

Model probability 45% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Rangers strength rating 1662 v St Mirren 1602
  • Rangers away record this season: 3W 3D 0L
  • St Mirren home form: 2W 2D 2L, 8 scored / 10 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Rangers +10 v St Mirren -7
  • Rangers unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 45% (Elo 36%, goals 50%, recent form 55%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Heart of Midlothian v Falkirk

Scottish Premiership · Sun 8 Nov, 15:00

Data: excellent
Heart of Midlothian win
49%
Draw
23%
Falkirk win
28%

FootyGrounds prediction

Heart of Midlothian to win

Model probability 49% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Heart of Midlothian strength rating 1650 v Falkirk 1621
  • Heart of Midlothian home record this season: 4W 1D 0L
  • Falkirk away form: 2W 3D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Heart of Midlothian +7 v Falkirk +1
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 52%, goals 52%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Falkirk are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Falkirk have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.

Full match analysis
Celtic v Kilmarnock

Scottish Premiership · Sun 8 Nov, 16:00

Data: excellent
Celtic win
71%
Draw
14%
Kilmarnock win
16%

FootyGrounds prediction

Celtic to win

Model probability 71% · predicted score 3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score59 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Celtic strength rating 1689 v Kilmarnock 1567
  • Celtic home record this season: 4W 1D 1L
  • Kilmarnock away form: 1W 1D 4L, 6 scored / 13 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Celtic +19 v Kilmarnock -14
  • Celtic have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 71% (Elo 66%, goals 83%, recent form 60%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Kilmarnock v Aberdeen

Scottish Premiership · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Data: excellent
Kilmarnock win
37%
Draw
27%
Aberdeen win
36%

FootyGrounds prediction

Kilmarnock to win

Model probability 37% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Kilmarnock strength rating 1567 v Aberdeen 1607
  • Kilmarnock home record this season: 1W 1D 3L
  • Aberdeen away form: 1W 1D 3L, 7 scored / 9 conceded
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 38%, goals 32%, recent form 43%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Celtic v St Mirren

Scottish Premiership · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Data: excellent
Celtic win
66%
Draw
16%
St Mirren win
18%

FootyGrounds prediction

Celtic to win

Model probability 66% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score63 / 100 · Moderate
Why?
  • Celtic strength rating 1689 v St Mirren 1602
  • Celtic home record this season: 4W 1D 1L
  • St Mirren away form: 2W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 9 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Celtic +19 v St Mirren -7
  • Celtic have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 66% (Elo 61%, goals 75%, recent form 62%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Falkirk v St Johnstone

Scottish Premiership · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Data: excellent
Falkirk win
51%
Draw
23%
St Johnstone win
27%

FootyGrounds prediction

Falkirk to win

Model probability 51% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Falkirk strength rating 1621 v St Johnstone 1610
  • Falkirk home record this season: 2W 0D 3L
  • St Johnstone away form: 1W 1D 3L, 3 scored / 8 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Falkirk +1 v St Johnstone -5
  • Falkirk have won 3 of their last 5
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 50%, recent form 58%)

Main uncertainty: St Johnstone are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis
Hibernian v Dundee United

Scottish Premiership · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Data: excellent
Hibernian win
34%
Draw
25%
Dundee United win
41%

FootyGrounds prediction

Dundee United to win

Model probability 41% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score28 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why?
  • Dundee United strength rating 1628 v Hibernian 1586
  • Dundee United away record this season: 2W 2D 2L
  • Hibernian home form: 0W 1D 5L, 5 scored / 11 conceded
  • Superior goal difference: Dundee United 0 v Hibernian -6
  • Dundee United unbeaten in their last 5 matches
  • Opponent-adjusted model probability: 41% (Elo 34%, goals 37%, recent form 63%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 29 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis