Match predictor

18+

Transparent statistical predictions for upcoming football fixtures: win, draw and away probabilities, a FootyGrounds confidence score, data quality and the reasoning behind every forecast.

How the model works · Historical accuracy

St Mirren v Dundee United

Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent

St Mirren win: 54%
Draw: 21%
Dundee United win: 25%

FootyGrounds prediction

St Mirren to win

Model probability 54% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score56 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

St Mirren strength rating 1630 v Dundee United 1604
St Mirren home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
Dundee United away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
Superior goal difference: St Mirren +2 v Dundee United -5
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 54% (Elo 51%, goals 56%, recent form 55%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

St Johnstone v Falkirk

Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent

St Johnstone win: 50%
Draw: 22%
Falkirk win: 27%

FootyGrounds prediction

St Johnstone to win

Model probability 50% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

St Johnstone strength rating 1614 v Falkirk 1604
St Johnstone home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
Falkirk away form: 0W 2D 1L, 2 scored / 3 conceded
Superior goal difference: St Johnstone -1 v Falkirk -3
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 48%, recent form 59%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Hibernian v Aberdeen

Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent

Hibernian win: 40%
Draw: 26%
Aberdeen win: 34%

FootyGrounds prediction

Hibernian to win

Model probability 40% · predicted score 1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Hibernian strength rating 1604 v Aberdeen 1618
Hibernian home record this season: 0W 0D 3L
Aberdeen away form: 1W 0D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 41%, recent form 33%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Dundee v Motherwell

Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 14:00

Data: excellent

Dundee win: 46%
Draw: 25%
Motherwell win: 29%

FootyGrounds prediction

Dundee to win

Model probability 46% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Dundee strength rating 1622 v Motherwell 1614
Dundee home record this season: 1W 1D 1L
Motherwell away form: 1W 1D 1L, 5 scored / 5 conceded
Superior goal difference: Dundee +1 v Motherwell -1
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 48%, goals 47%, recent form 40%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Kilmarnock v Heart of Midlothian

Scottish Premiership · Sat 19 Sept, 16:45

Data: excellent

Kilmarnock win: 28%
Draw: 24%
Heart of Midlothian win: 47%

FootyGrounds prediction

Heart of Midlothian to win

Model probability 47% · predicted score 1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)

FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Heart of Midlothian strength rating 1642 v Kilmarnock 1584
Heart of Midlothian away record this season: 1W 0D 2L
Kilmarnock home form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 10 conceded
Superior goal difference: Heart of Midlothian +6 v Kilmarnock -9
Heart of Midlothian have won 4 of their last 5
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 36%, goals 56%, recent form 57%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis

Celtic v Rangers

Scottish Premiership · Sun 20 Sept, 11:00

Data: excellent

Celtic win: 52%
Draw: 23%
Rangers win: 25%

FootyGrounds prediction

Celtic to win

Model probability 52% · predicted score 2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)

FootyGrounds confidence score53 / 100 · Low–Moderate

Why?

Celtic strength rating 1668 v Rangers 1637
Celtic home record this season: 3W 0D 0L
Rangers away form: 2W 1D 0L, 4 scored / 2 conceded
Superior goal difference: Celtic +11 v Rangers +3
Celtic unbeaten in their last 5 matches
Opponent-adjusted model probability: 52% (Elo 52%, goals 55%, recent form 48%)

Main uncertainty: Rangers are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Rangers have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

Full match analysis