Heart of Midlothian v Falkirk
18+Scottish Premiership · Sun 8 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Heart of Midlothian win
- 49%
- Draw
- 23%
- Falkirk win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Heart of Midlothian to win
Model probability 49%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Heart of Midlothian strength rating 1650 v Falkirk 1621
- Heart of Midlothian home record this season: 4W 1D 0L
- Falkirk away form: 2W 3D 1L, 6 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Heart of Midlothian +7 v Falkirk +1
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 52%, goals 52%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Falkirk are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Falkirk have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 12.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 49% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 49%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.