Falkirk v St Johnstone
18+Scottish Premiership · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: excellent
- Falkirk win
- 51%
- Draw
- 23%
- St Johnstone win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Falkirk to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score51 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Falkirk strength rating 1621 v St Johnstone 1610
- Falkirk home record this season: 2W 0D 3L
- St Johnstone away form: 1W 1D 3L, 3 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Falkirk +1 v St Johnstone -5
- Falkirk have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 48%, goals 50%, recent form 58%)
Main uncertainty: St Johnstone are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model58%
Component disagreement: 9.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.