Falkirk v Celtic
18+Scottish Premiership · Sun 1 Nov, 13:00
Data: excellent
- Falkirk win
- 31%
- Draw
- 27%
- Celtic win
- 43%
FootyGrounds prediction
Celtic to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Celtic strength rating 1689 v Falkirk 1621
- Celtic away record this season: 5W 0D 0L
- Falkirk home form: 2W 0D 3L, 7 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Celtic +19 v Falkirk +1
- Celtic have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 38%, goals 50%, recent form 42%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Falkirk are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model38%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model42%
Component disagreement: 11.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.