Match predictor

• FC Porto strength rating 1696 v Estoril 1569
• FC Porto home record this season: 4W 0D 0L
• Estoril away form: 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: FC Porto +17 v Estoril -10
• FC Porto unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 75% (Elo 67%, goals 79%, recent form 87%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Arouca strength rating 1641 v Nacional 1582
• Arouca home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
• Nacional away form: 0W 1D 3L, 4 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Arouca +5 v Nacional -8
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 57%, goals 62%, recent form 75%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Académico de Viseu strength rating 1636 v Rio Ave 1574
• Académico de Viseu home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Rio Ave away form: 1W 0D 3L, 2 scored / 6 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Académico de Viseu +2 v Rio Ave -13
• Académico de Viseu unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 57%, goals 66%, recent form 66%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Santa Clara strength rating 1649 v Marítimo 1586
• Santa Clara away record this season: 3W 1D 0L
• Marítimo home form: 1W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Santa Clara +7 v Marítimo -10
• Santa Clara have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 37%, goals 53%, recent form 60%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• SC Braga strength rating 1608 v Famalicão 1625
• SC Braga home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
• Famalicão away form: 2W 2D 1L, 11 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 43%, goals 37%, recent form 34%)

Main uncertainty: Famalicão are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Famalicão have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Benfica strength rating 1685 v Alverca 1621
• Benfica home record this season: 3W 1D 0L
• Alverca away form: 2W 0D 2L, 8 scored / 7 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Benfica +18 v Alverca 0
• Benfica have won 4 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 61% (Elo 58%, goals 70%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. Alverca are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Gil Vicente strength rating 1626 v Vitória de Guimarães 1611
• Gil Vicente home record this season: 2W 1D 2L
• Vitória de Guimarães away form: 0W 0D 4L, 3 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Gil Vicente +1 v Vitória de Guimarães 0
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 42%, recent form 65%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Famalicão strength rating 1625 v Arouca 1641
• Famalicão home record this season: 0W 2D 2L
• Arouca away form: 2W 2D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 43%, goals 40%, recent form 32%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Arouca are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Arouca have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type.

• Académico de Viseu strength rating 1636 v Nacional 1582
• Académico de Viseu away record this season: 3W 2D 0L
• Nacional home form: 2W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 10 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Académico de Viseu +2 v Nacional -8
• Académico de Viseu unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 43%, recent form 56%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Alverca strength rating 1621 v Casa Pia 1573
• Alverca home record this season: 1W 2D 2L
• Casa Pia away form: 2W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Alverca 0 v Casa Pia -14
• Alverca have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 55%, goals 64%, recent form 44%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. Casa Pia have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Sporting CP strength rating 1668 v Moreirense 1609
• Sporting CP home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
• Moreirense away form: 2W 1D 2L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Sporting CP +12 v Moreirense -5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 57%, goals 69%, recent form 52%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Moreirense are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Estoril strength rating 1569 v Marítimo 1586
• Estoril home record this season: 0W 2D 3L
• Marítimo away form: 1W 1D 3L, 5 scored / 12 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 43%, goals 41%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Santa Clara strength rating 1649 v Gil Vicente 1626
• Santa Clara home record this season: 2W 2D 1L
• Gil Vicente away form: 2W 1D 1L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Santa Clara +7 v Gil Vicente +1
• Santa Clara have won 3 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 49% (Elo 50%, goals 48%, recent form 46%)

Main uncertainty: Gil Vicente are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• FC Porto strength rating 1696 v Vitória de Guimarães 1611
• FC Porto away record this season: 5W 0D 0L
• Vitória de Guimarães home form: 2W 2D 1L, 7 scored / 2 conceded
• Superior goal difference: FC Porto +17 v Vitória de Guimarães 0
• FC Porto unbeaten in their last 5 matches
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 41%, goals 52%, recent form 56%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Vitória de Guimarães have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Rio Ave strength rating 1574 v SC Braga 1608
• Rio Ave home record this season: 1W 1D 3L
• SC Braga away form: 1W 2D 2L, 5 scored / 6 conceded
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 37% (Elo 39%, goals 31%, recent form 42%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.

• Benfica strength rating 1685 v Estrela 1604
• Benfica away record this season: 4W 0D 1L
• Estrela home form: 1W 2D 2L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
• Superior goal difference: Benfica +18 v Estrela -3
• Benfica have won 4 of their last 5
• Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 40%, goals 59%, recent form 55%)

Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.