Gil Vicente v Vitória de Guimarães
18+Primeira Liga · Mon 2 Nov, 20:15
Data: good
- Gil Vicente win
- 50%
- Draw
- 23%
- Vitória de Guimarães win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Gil Vicente to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Gil Vicente strength rating 1626 v Vitória de Guimarães 1611
- Gil Vicente home record this season: 2W 1D 2L
- Vitória de Guimarães away form: 0W 0D 4L, 3 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Gil Vicente +1 v Vitória de Guimarães 0
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 49%, goals 42%, recent form 65%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model65%
Component disagreement: 22.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.