Estrela v Benfica
18+Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 20:30
Data: good
- Estrela win
- 27%
- Draw
- 22%
- Benfica win
- 50%
FootyGrounds prediction
Benfica to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Benfica strength rating 1685 v Estrela 1604
- Benfica away record this season: 4W 0D 1L
- Estrela home form: 1W 2D 2L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Benfica +18 v Estrela -3
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 40%, goals 59%, recent form 55%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model40%
- Goals model59%
- Recent-form model55%
Component disagreement: 19.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.