Nacional v Académico de Viseu
18+Primeira Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 15:30
Data: good
- Nacional win
- 32%
- Draw
- 26%
- Académico de Viseu win
- 42%
FootyGrounds prediction
Académico de Viseu to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score26 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Académico de Viseu strength rating 1636 v Nacional 1582
- Académico de Viseu away record this season: 3W 2D 0L
- Nacional home form: 2W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Académico de Viseu +2 v Nacional -8
- Académico de Viseu unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 43%, recent form 56%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 21 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model56%
Component disagreement: 21.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.