Alverca v Casa Pia
18+Primeira Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 18:00
Data: good
- Alverca win
- 56%
- Draw
- 21%
- Casa Pia win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Alverca to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Alverca strength rating 1621 v Casa Pia 1573
- Alverca home record this season: 1W 2D 2L
- Casa Pia away form: 2W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Alverca 0 v Casa Pia -14
- Alverca have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 55%, goals 64%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 20 percentage points on this outcome. Casa Pia have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model55%
- Goals model64%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 20.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.