Marítimo v Santa Clara
18+Primeira Liga · Sun 1 Nov, 18:00
Data: good
- Marítimo win
- 28%
- Draw
- 25%
- Santa Clara win
- 47%
FootyGrounds prediction
Santa Clara to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Santa Clara strength rating 1649 v Marítimo 1586
- Santa Clara away record this season: 3W 1D 0L
- Marítimo home form: 1W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Santa Clara +7 v Marítimo -10
- Santa Clara have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 37%, goals 53%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model37%
- Goals model53%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 23.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 47%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.