Arouca v Nacional
18+Primeira Liga · Sun 1 Nov, 15:30
Data: good
- Arouca win
- 62%
- Draw
- 18%
- Nacional win
- 20%
FootyGrounds prediction
Arouca to win
Model probability 62%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Arouca strength rating 1641 v Nacional 1582
- Arouca home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- Nacional away form: 0W 1D 3L, 4 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Arouca +5 v Nacional -8
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 62% (Elo 57%, goals 62%, recent form 75%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model57%
- Goals model62%
- Recent-form model75%
Component disagreement: 17.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 62% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 62%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.