Vitória de Guimarães v FC Porto
18+Primeira Liga · Sun 8 Nov, 18:00
Data: good
- Vitória de Guimarães win
- 28%
- Draw
- 25%
- FC Porto win
- 48%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Porto to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score38 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Porto strength rating 1696 v Vitória de Guimarães 1611
- FC Porto away record this season: 5W 0D 0L
- Vitória de Guimarães home form: 2W 2D 1L, 7 scored / 2 conceded
- Superior goal difference: FC Porto +17 v Vitória de Guimarães 0
- FC Porto unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 41%, goals 52%, recent form 56%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. Vitória de Guimarães have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model56%
Component disagreement: 14.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.