Sporting CP v Moreirense
18+Primeira Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 20:30
Data: good
- Sporting CP win
- 60%
- Draw
- 18%
- Moreirense win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Sporting CP to win
Model probability 60%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Sporting CP strength rating 1668 v Moreirense 1609
- Sporting CP home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Moreirense away form: 2W 1D 2L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Sporting CP +12 v Moreirense -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 60% (Elo 57%, goals 69%, recent form 52%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. Moreirense are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model57%
- Goals model69%
- Recent-form model52%
Component disagreement: 17.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 60% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 60%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.