Benfica v Alverca
18+Primeira Liga · Mon 2 Nov, 20:15
Data: good
- Benfica win
- 61%
- Draw
- 18%
- Alverca win
- 21%
FootyGrounds prediction
Benfica to win
Model probability 61%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score48 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Benfica strength rating 1685 v Alverca 1621
- Benfica home record this season: 3W 1D 0L
- Alverca away form: 2W 0D 2L, 8 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Benfica +18 v Alverca 0
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 61% (Elo 58%, goals 70%, recent form 52%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. Alverca are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model58%
- Goals model70%
- Recent-form model52%
Component disagreement: 17.7 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 61% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 61%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:10. Read the methodology.