FC Twente v Ajax
18+Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 13:30
Data: excellent
- FC Twente win
- 40%
- Draw
- 26%
- Ajax win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Twente to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Twente strength rating 1656 v Ajax 1681
- FC Twente home record this season: 4W 0D 1L
- Ajax away form: 5W 0D 0L, 18 scored / 4 conceded
- FC Twente have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 41%, goals 42%, recent form 35%)
Main uncertainty: Ajax are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. Ajax have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model41%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model35%
Component disagreement: 7.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.