Ajax v AZ Alkmaar
18+Eredivisie · Sat 31 Oct, 20:00
Data: excellent
- Ajax win
- 51%
- Draw
- 21%
- AZ Alkmaar win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Ajax to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score49 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Ajax strength rating 1681 v AZ Alkmaar 1653
- Ajax home record this season: 1W 3D 1L
- AZ Alkmaar away form: 3W 1D 1L, 11 scored / 7 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Ajax +16 v AZ Alkmaar +8
- Ajax unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 51%, goals 55%, recent form 44%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model51%
- Goals model55%
- Recent-form model44%
Component disagreement: 11.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.