FC Utrecht v NEC
18+Eredivisie · Sun 8 Nov, 19:00
Data: excellent
- FC Utrecht win
- 42%
- Draw
- 23%
- NEC win
- 34%
FootyGrounds prediction
FC Utrecht to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score45 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- FC Utrecht strength rating 1598 v NEC 1614
- FC Utrecht home record this season: 1W 2D 2L
- NEC away form: 2W 1D 1L, 8 scored / 6 conceded
- FC Utrecht have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 43%, goals 39%, recent form 46%)
Main uncertainty: NEC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model43%
- Goals model39%
- Recent-form model46%
Component disagreement: 6.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 42% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 42%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.