Mainz 05 v Bayern Munich
18+Bundesliga · Sat 7 Nov, 14:30
Data: good
- Mainz 05 win
- 29%
- Draw
- 23%
- Bayern Munich win
- 48%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bayern Munich to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
2–3 (range 1–2 to 3–4)
FootyGrounds confidence score31 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bayern Munich strength rating 1675 v Mainz 05 1615
- Bayern Munich away record this season: 2W 2D 0L
- Mainz 05 home form: 0W 1D 3L, 6 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Bayern Munich +19 v Mainz 05 0
- Bayern Munich unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 36%, goals 58%, recent form 57%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 22 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model36%
- Goals model58%
- Recent-form model57%
Component disagreement: 21.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.