Hamburger SV v Borussia Mönchengladbach
18+Bundesliga · Fri 6 Nov, 19:30
Data: good
- Hamburger SV win
- 51%
- Draw
- 20%
- Borussia Mönchengladbach win
- 28%
FootyGrounds prediction
Hamburger SV to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score36 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Hamburger SV strength rating 1596 v Borussia Mönchengladbach 1581
- Hamburger SV home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Borussia Mönchengladbach away form: 1W 0D 3L, 4 scored / 12 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Hamburger SV -10 v Borussia Mönchengladbach -11
- Hamburger SV have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 49%, goals 46%, recent form 65%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 19 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model46%
- Recent-form model65%
Component disagreement: 19.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 52% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.