Union Berlin v RB Leipzig
18+Bundesliga · Sat 21 Nov, 14:30
Data: good
- Union Berlin win
- 33%
- Draw
- 24%
- RB Leipzig win
- 42%
FootyGrounds prediction
RB Leipzig to win
Model probability 42%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score23 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- RB Leipzig strength rating 1638 v Union Berlin 1590
- RB Leipzig away record this season: 0W 0D 3L
- Union Berlin home form: 1W 2D 1L, 5 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: RB Leipzig +9 v Union Berlin -12
- RB Leipzig have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 42% (Elo 35%, goals 60%, recent form 29%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 31 percentage points on this outcome. Union Berlin are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model60%
- Recent-form model29%
Component disagreement: 30.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.