Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC
18+Major League Soccer · Sat 7 Nov, 21:00
Data: good
- Philadelphia Union win
- 53%
- Draw
- 21%
- Toronto FC win
- 26%
FootyGrounds prediction
Philadelphia Union to win
Model probability 53%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score40 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Philadelphia Union strength rating 1620 v Toronto FC 1620
- Superior goal difference: Philadelphia Union +11 v Toronto FC -11
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 53% (Elo 46%, goals 61%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model61%
Component disagreement: 15.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 53% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:04), now 53%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:11. Read the methodology.