Chicago Fire FC v Columbus Crew
18+Major League Soccer · Sat 7 Nov, 21:00
Data: good
- Chicago Fire FC win
- 51%
- Draw
- 22%
- Columbus Crew win
- 27%
FootyGrounds prediction
Chicago Fire FC to win
Model probability 51%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Chicago Fire FC strength rating 1620 v Columbus Crew 1620
- Superior goal difference: Chicago Fire FC +11 v Columbus Crew -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 51% (Elo 46%, goals 56%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model56%
Component disagreement: 10.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 51% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:04), now 51%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:11. Read the methodology.