Newcastle United v Everton
18+Premier League · Mon 2 Nov, 20:00
Data: good
- Newcastle United win
- 46%
- Draw
- 24%
- Everton win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Newcastle United to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score43 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Newcastle United strength rating 1613 v Everton 1614
- Newcastle United home record this season: 1W 2D 1L
- Everton away form: 0W 4D 1L, 4 scored / 6 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 46%, goals 44%, recent form 50%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model46%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model50%
Component disagreement: 6.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 46% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.