Nottingham Forest v Manchester City
18+Premier League · Sat 7 Nov, 17:30
Data: good
- Nottingham Forest win
- 29%
- Draw
- 25%
- Manchester City win
- 46%
FootyGrounds prediction
Manchester City to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Manchester City strength rating 1668 v Nottingham Forest 1597
- Manchester City away record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- Nottingham Forest home form: 0W 1D 3L, 0 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Manchester City +10 v Nottingham Forest -4
- Manchester City have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 38%, goals 48%, recent form 62%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 23 percentage points on this outcome. Nottingham Forest have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model38%
- Goals model48%
- Recent-form model62%
Component disagreement: 23.5 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 47% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.