Sunderland v Chelsea
18+Premier League · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00
Data: good
- Sunderland win
- 31%
- Draw
- 26%
- Chelsea win
- 43%
FootyGrounds prediction
Chelsea to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Chelsea strength rating 1635 v Sunderland 1585
- Chelsea away record this season: 2W 0D 2L
- Sunderland home form: 1W 1D 2L, 1 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Chelsea +4 v Sunderland -9
- Chelsea have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 35%, goals 50%, recent form 50%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 15 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model35%
- Goals model50%
- Recent-form model50%
Component disagreement: 15.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 43%.
- 2 new results added
- Away strength rating up 7 points
- Updated rest days for the away club
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.