Chelsea v Leeds United
18+Premier League · Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Data: good
- Chelsea win
- 47%
- Draw
- 23%
- Leeds United win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Chelsea to win
Model probability 47%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score42 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Chelsea strength rating 1635 v Leeds United 1632
- Chelsea home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Leeds United away form: 1W 2D 1L, 3 scored / 3 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Chelsea +4 v Leeds United +3
- Chelsea have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 47% (Elo 47%, goals 44%, recent form 52%)
Main uncertainty: Leeds United are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Leeds United have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model47%
- Goals model44%
- Recent-form model52%
Component disagreement: 8.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.