Arsenal v Hull City
18+Premier League · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00
Data: good
- Arsenal win
- 56%
- Draw
- 21%
- Hull City win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Arsenal to win
Model probability 56%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Arsenal strength rating 1665 v Hull City 1624
- Arsenal home record this season: 5W 0D 0L
- Hull City away form: 1W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Arsenal +8 v Hull City +1
- Arsenal have won 4 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 56% (Elo 54%, goals 52%, recent form 69%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model54%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model69%
Component disagreement: 17.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 56% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 56%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.