Aston Villa v Fulham
18+Premier League · Sat 31 Oct, 20:00
Data: good
- Aston Villa win
- 46%
- Draw
- 24%
- Fulham win
- 30%
FootyGrounds prediction
Aston Villa to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score44 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Aston Villa strength rating 1615 v Fulham 1608
- Aston Villa home record this season: 1W 1D 2L
- Fulham away form: 1W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 3 conceded
- Aston Villa have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 48%, goals 42%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Fulham are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. Fulham have conceded under a goal a game in this venue type. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 5.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 46% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:08. Read the methodology.