Atalanta v Parma
18+Serie A · Mon 2 Nov, 19:45
Data: good
- Atalanta win
- 58%
- Draw
- 19%
- Parma win
- 23%
FootyGrounds prediction
Atalanta to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score46 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Atalanta strength rating 1613 v Parma 1580
- Atalanta home record this season: 3W 1D 1L
- Parma away form: 0W 0D 4L, 2 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Atalanta -1 v Parma -10
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 52%, goals 59%, recent form 69%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 17 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model52%
- Goals model59%
- Recent-form model69%
Component disagreement: 16.9 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 58% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 58%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.