Monza v Atalanta
18+Serie A · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00
Data: good
- Monza win
- 46%
- Draw
- 22%
- Atalanta win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Monza to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score33 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Monza strength rating 1592 v Atalanta 1613
- Monza home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
- Atalanta away form: 0W 1D 3L, 5 scored / 9 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 42%, goals 43%, recent form 60%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 18 percentage points on this outcome. Atalanta are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model42%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model60%
Component disagreement: 18.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 46% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.