Genoa v AC Milan
18+Serie A · Sun 8 Nov, 14:00
Data: good
- Genoa win
- 35%
- Draw
- 27%
- AC Milan win
- 38%
FootyGrounds prediction
AC Milan to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score30 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AC Milan strength rating 1646 v Genoa 1599
- AC Milan away record this season: 2W 3D 0L
- Genoa home form: 3W 1D 2L, 7 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: AC Milan +7 v Genoa -5
- AC Milan have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 34%, goals 45%, recent form 33%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. Genoa are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model33%
Component disagreement: 12.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.