Parma v Bologna
18+Serie A · Sat 7 Nov, 17:00
Data: good
- Parma win
- 33%
- Draw
- 27%
- Bologna win
- 40%
FootyGrounds prediction
Bologna to win
Model probability 40%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score31 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Bologna strength rating 1624 v Parma 1580
- Bologna away record this season: 3W 0D 2L
- Parma home form: 1W 2D 2L, 3 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Bologna 0 v Parma -10
- Bologna have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 40% (Elo 34%, goals 42%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 13.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 40% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 40%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.