Como v Cagliari
18+Serie A · Sat 21 Nov, 14:00
Data: good
- Como win
- 58%
- Draw
- 20%
- Cagliari win
- 22%
FootyGrounds prediction
Como to win
Model probability 58%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score52 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Como strength rating 1664 v Cagliari 1607
- Como home record this season: 2W 1D 0L
- Cagliari away form: 3W 0D 2L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Como +9 v Cagliari -5
- Como have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 58% (Elo 57%, goals 62%, recent form 52%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 10 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model57%
- Goals model62%
- Recent-form model52%
Component disagreement: 10.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 58% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 58%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.