Lecce v Genoa
18+Serie A · Sun 1 Nov, 17:00
Data: good
- Lecce win
- 43%
- Draw
- 25%
- Genoa win
- 32%
FootyGrounds prediction
Lecce to win
Model probability 43%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score39 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Lecce strength rating 1591 v Genoa 1599
- Lecce home record this season: 1W 0D 3L
- Genoa away form: 0W 0D 3L, 1 scored / 5 conceded
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 43% (Elo 45%, goals 41%, recent form 43%)
Main uncertainty: Genoa are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model41%
- Recent-form model43%
Component disagreement: 3.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 43% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 43%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.