Lazio v Lecce
18+Serie A · Sat 21 Nov, 14:00
Data: good
- Lazio win
- 67%
- Draw
- 15%
- Lecce win
- 17%
FootyGrounds prediction
Lazio to win
Model probability 67%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score58 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Lazio strength rating 1687 v Lecce 1591
- Lazio home record this season: 3W 1D 0L
- Lecce away form: 2W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 9 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Lazio +15 v Lecce -9
- Lazio unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 67% (Elo 63%, goals 76%, recent form 62%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model63%
- Goals model76%
- Recent-form model62%
Component disagreement: 14.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 67% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 67%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.