Cagliari v Frosinone
18+Serie A · Sat 7 Nov, 14:00
Data: good
- Cagliari win
- 34%
- Draw
- 26%
- Frosinone win
- 39%
FootyGrounds prediction
Frosinone to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score31 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Frosinone strength rating 1647 v Cagliari 1607
- Frosinone away record this season: 1W 2D 1L
- Cagliari home form: 1W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 4 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Frosinone +8 v Cagliari -5
- Frosinone have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 34%, goals 47%, recent form 38%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model47%
- Recent-form model38%
Component disagreement: 12.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.