Sassuolo v Fiorentina
18+Serie A · Mon 2 Nov, 17:30
Data: good
- Sassuolo win
- 50%
- Draw
- 21%
- Fiorentina win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Sassuolo to win
Model probability 50%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score50 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Sassuolo strength rating 1591 v Fiorentina 1579
- Sassuolo home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Fiorentina away form: 1W 0D 3L, 6 scored / 10 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Sassuolo -8 v Fiorentina -10
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 50% (Elo 48%, goals 52%, recent form 52%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model48%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model52%
Component disagreement: 3.8 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 50% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:02), now 50%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.