Paris Saint-Germain v Troyes
18+Ligue 1 · Sat 7 Nov, 19:45
Data: good
- Paris Saint-Germain win
- 69%
- Draw
- 15%
- Troyes win
- 16%
FootyGrounds prediction
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Model probability 69%
Predicted scoreline
3–1 (range 2–0 to 4–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score61 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Paris Saint-Germain strength rating 1668 v Troyes 1574
- Paris Saint-Germain home record this season: 2W 0D 1L
- Troyes away form: 1W 1D 2L, 2 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Paris Saint-Germain +11 v Troyes -11
- Paris Saint-Germain unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 69% (Elo 62%, goals 75%, recent form 74%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 13 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model62%
- Goals model75%
- Recent-form model74%
Component disagreement: 12.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 69% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 69%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.