OGC Nice v Paris Saint-Germain
18+Ligue 1 · Sat 21 Nov, 16:15
Data: good
- OGC Nice win
- 36%
- Draw
- 26%
- Paris Saint-Germain win
- 38%
FootyGrounds prediction
Paris Saint-Germain to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Paris Saint-Germain strength rating 1668 v OGC Nice 1629
- Paris Saint-Germain away record this season: 4W 2D 0L
- OGC Nice home form: 3W 2D 0L, 10 scored / 5 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Paris Saint-Germain +11 v OGC Nice +1
- Paris Saint-Germain unbeaten in their last 5 matches
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 34%, goals 42%, recent form 40%)
Main uncertainty: OGC Nice are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model40%
Component disagreement: 8.6 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.