Le Mans v AS Monaco
18+Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15
Data: good
- Le Mans win
- 35%
- Draw
- 27%
- AS Monaco win
- 38%
FootyGrounds prediction
AS Monaco to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score34 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- AS Monaco strength rating 1641 v Le Mans 1598
- AS Monaco away record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Le Mans home form: 1W 2D 1L, 6 scored / 8 conceded
- Superior goal difference: AS Monaco +4 v Le Mans -5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 34%, goals 42%, recent form 39%)
Main uncertainty: No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model34%
- Goals model42%
- Recent-form model39%
Component disagreement: 8.1 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.