Le Havre v Lorient
18+Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 16:15
Data: good
- Le Havre win
- 30%
- Draw
- 26%
- Lorient win
- 44%
FootyGrounds prediction
Lorient to win
Model probability 44%
Predicted scoreline
1–1 (range 0–0 to 2–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score25 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Lorient strength rating 1626 v Le Havre 1567
- Lorient away record this season: 1W 2D 1L
- Le Havre home form: 0W 1D 4L, 3 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Lorient +1 v Le Havre -11
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 44% (Elo 36%, goals 43%, recent form 63%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 27 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model36%
- Goals model43%
- Recent-form model63%
Component disagreement: 27.2 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 44% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 44%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.