RC Lens v Olympique de Marseille
18+Ligue 1 · Sun 8 Nov, 19:45
Data: good
- RC Lens win
- 46%
- Draw
- 23%
- Olympique de Marseille win
- 31%
FootyGrounds prediction
RC Lens to win
Model probability 46%
Predicted scoreline
2–2 (range 1–1 to 3–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score47 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- RC Lens strength rating 1629 v Olympique de Marseille 1634
- RC Lens home record this season: 3W 0D 1L
- Olympique de Marseille away form: 2W 0D 2L, 7 scored / 5 conceded
- RC Lens have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 46% (Elo 45%, goals 45%, recent form 48%)
Main uncertainty: Olympique de Marseille are unbeaten in their last 3 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model45%
- Goals model45%
- Recent-form model48%
Component disagreement: 2.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 46% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 46%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.