Olympique de Marseille v Toulouse FC
18+Ligue 1 · Sun 1 Nov, 19:45
Data: good
- Olympique de Marseille win
- 48%
- Draw
- 23%
- Toulouse FC win
- 29%
FootyGrounds prediction
Olympique de Marseille to win
Model probability 48%
Predicted scoreline
2–1 (range 1–0 to 3–2)
FootyGrounds confidence score41 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Olympique de Marseille strength rating 1634 v Toulouse FC 1622
- Olympique de Marseille home record this season: 2W 0D 2L
- Toulouse FC away form: 1W 3D 0L, 9 scored / 6 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Olympique de Marseille +5 v Toulouse FC +1
- Olympique de Marseille have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 48% (Elo 49%, goals 52%, recent form 41%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 11 percentage points on this outcome. Toulouse FC are unbeaten in their last 4 matches. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model49%
- Goals model52%
- Recent-form model41%
Component disagreement: 11.3 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 48% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 48%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.