Auxerre v Paris FC
18+Ligue 1 · Sat 7 Nov, 16:15
Data: good
- Auxerre win
- 39%
- Draw
- 25%
- Paris FC win
- 36%
FootyGrounds prediction
Auxerre to win
Model probability 39%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Auxerre strength rating 1604 v Paris FC 1636
- Auxerre home record this season: 2W 1D 1L
- Paris FC away form: 1W 1D 2L, 4 scored / 5 conceded
- Auxerre have won 3 of their last 5
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 39% (Elo 40%, goals 33%, recent form 47%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 14 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model40%
- Goals model33%
- Recent-form model47%
Component disagreement: 14.0 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 39% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 39%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.