Troyes v Le Mans
18+Ligue 1 · Sat 31 Oct, 19:45
Data: good
- Troyes win
- 37%
- Draw
- 25%
- Le Mans win
- 38%
FootyGrounds prediction
Le Mans to win
Model probability 38%
Predicted scoreline
1–2 (range 0–1 to 2–3)
FootyGrounds confidence score29 / 100 · Low–Moderate
Why the model predicts this
- Le Mans strength rating 1598 v Troyes 1574
- Le Mans away record this season: 0W 2D 2L
- Troyes home form: 0W 1D 3L, 3 scored / 11 conceded
- Superior goal difference: Le Mans -5 v Troyes -11
- Opponent-adjusted model probability: 38% (Elo 33%, goals 40%, recent form 45%)
Main uncertainty: Model components disagree by 12 percentage points on this outcome. No verified injury or suspension data is available for this division.
Model agreement
Model components
- Elo strength model33%
- Goals model40%
- Recent-form model45%
Component disagreement: 12.4 percentage points. Wider disagreement between the strength, goals and form models lowers the confidence score.
How this prediction has changed
Previously 38% (calculated 31/10/2026, 14:20:03), now 38%.
Model version fg-match-predictor-1.0.0 · last calculated 31/10/2026, 16:20:09. Read the methodology.